What's Really Moving the Economy in 2026
- 23 hours ago
- 1 min read
An executive briefing on the economic and geopolitical shifts defining 2026, and the decisions they put in front of your business.
The economy isn't behaving the way the headlines suggest — and that gap is where risk and opportunity live. This outlook explains what's really driving 2026 and what it means for your business, distilled from a May 2026 Cottingham & Butler CEO Summit session with Shailesh Kumar, who leads The Hartford's Global Insights Research Center and has advised at the U.S. Treasury and Eurasia Group.
What's inside:
Why consumer spending holds up despite deep pessimism — and the vulnerability that could reverse it
The interest-rate reset, and why ultra-cheap money isn't coming back
AI as an economic engine: how much it's really driving growth, and where it could break.
The demographic shift no policy can reverse, and what an aging workforce means for hiring and growth
Tariffs and a fracturing world order: what the headline numbers get wrong
Five executive takeaways for your people, your footprint, and the year ahead
"You can change tariffs and you can change monetary policy — but you can't change demographics. It's the trend running underneath everything else."
Download the Full Outlook
Get the full outlook and connect with your Cottingham & Butler representative on the steps worth taking before these forces reach your bottom line.